A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
